Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Mark Twain was quoted as saying, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” In today’s world of social media, these words are truer than ever. In the wake of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, people took to social media to start spinning their narrative, because we have long since lost actual journalists. Maybe the thought that journalists used to tell the truth is a myth, and we were always given stories, not news.

MSNBC analyst Matthew Dowd, on the day of Kirk’s death said, on air, that the shooting may have been “a supporter shooting their gun off in celebration.” He then went on to opine that Kirk had been “one of the most divisive, especially divisive younger figures in this, who is constantly sort of pushing this sort of hate speech or sort of aimed at certain groups.”

“And I always go back to, hateful thoughts lead to hateful words, which then lead to hateful actions,” Dowd said. “And I think that is the environment we are in.” (USA Today, 9-11-25) MSNBC apologized for Dowd’s words and fired him.

Missing from Dowd’s analysis was proof of Charlie Kirk’s hate speech. Charlie espoused Biblical views on societal issues, but never spoke hatefully. People who disagreed with him were allowed to the front of the line of those seeking to speak with him. He was always respectful, but firm. People took that firmness, and his Biblical views, as hateful.

In today’s social media environment, too often people mistake feelings for facts, and replace rationality with whimsy. A case in point is a Democratic Congressman from Massachusetts, Seth Coulton. He said that people need to be “serious” about the origins of political violence. He claimed that “76% are from right-wing extremists, while 4% came from “left-wing extremists. (MSNBC, 9-11-25) Again, missing from Moulton’s words was proof. Or, to be more exact, his source.

The numbers seemed to have come from a 2024 Anti-Defamation League (ADL) report: Murder and Extremism in the United States in 2023. The ADL was formed as a New York-based, international non-governmental organization in 1913 to combat anti-semetism. It has recently become a lightning rod itself, especially after the October 7 attacks in Israel. The ADL defines a domestic extremist as, “Extremists who are U.S. citizens or longtime permanent residents.” The ADL divides domestic extremists to left-wing (like Black Nationalists and anarchists), right-wing (like white supremecists and sovereign citizens), and Muslim extremists.

The first thing I noticed about the above graphic was the line at the very bottom. “Note: Total deaths include both ideologically and non-ideolofically motivated killings.” What is missing is why the ADL included those numbers together. If you are looking at domestic extremism, and a white supremecist kills his wife in a domestic dispute, why is that number pertinent to domestic extremism?

The ADL explicitly says this in the report. “The Center on Extremism defines non-ideological murders as murders for which the motive is unclear, murders committed to benefit an extremist group or members thereof (such as killing internal or external rivals or suspected informants) and murders committed for traditional motives such as greed, anger or jealousy. These can include domestic violence murders as well as murders related to criminal enterprises such as drug dealing, in which many white supremacist gangs engage.”

So the ADL’s report includes deaths that are not ideologically based, but use those numbers in a report on ideologically driven deaths. You can’t make this stuff up. Well actually, you could. It seems that is what the ADL has done.

Further muddying the waters, the ADL is vague about what “right-wing” and “left wing” actually means. The basic distinction between the two is individual rights (right-wing) vs governmental power (left-wing). The ADL classifies fascism as a right-wing belief, yet fascism, according to Brittanica, is, “Extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political and cultural liberalism, a belief in natural social hierarchy and the rule of elites, and the desire to create a Volksgemeinschaft (German for “people’s community”), in which individual interests would be subordinated to the good of the nation.” (Brittanica) Subjugating individual interests for the good of the whole would not be consistent with a belief in individual rights over governmental power.

The reality is that this is not something you can wrap into a nice, neat bow and make pretty. The Nazi Party of the 1930s and 1940s were National Socialists, a left-wing ideology that Adolf Hitler infused with racial purity and an anti-semitism. Neo-Nazis tend to focus on the racial purity aspect of the Nazis. Antifa and Black Lives Matter are left-wing militant groups that are Marxist in philosophy. Marxism is at the core of Socialist and Communist philosophies. Countries with socialist and communist governments are quite often dictatorial and oppressive. I’m looking at you, Russia, China, and North Korea.

Take a moment and let your head stop spinning. Here’s the bottom line: When a politician or “journalist” opens their mouth, assume that what comes out is incorrect. Both clearly have agendas for what they say. If they start spoutiing numbers, that is your signal to engage in critical thinking. Take the time to look at their sources, if they have them. Take a look at the ADL report for yourself. Don’t take my word for it. Hell, Robin tells me how wrong I am on a daily basis. You don’t know me nearly as well, so I would definitely double-check my numbers.

After all, there are lies, damned lies, and there are statistics. Eight out of ten people on the Interwebs make up their statistics on the spot, and the other five get their information from sketchy sources. As irritating as it is, do your own math. Your teacher said you would actually use it in real life. Make them proud!